Ethiopia will never be independent unless it produces its own military technology.
As the Ethiopian conflict relatviely slows down with sides entrenching in their territories and efforts for peace continues. There has been growing calls for countries to limit military sales to the Ethiopian government of Abiy Ahmed Ali. These calls stem from ‘human rights activists’, Western officials and TPLF allied propagandists. A total arms embargo was even one of the 4 demands that the TPLF sent to the UN Security Council. Hoping that the overture would encourage the body to slap punitive sanctions on PM Ahmed’s government.
The reason isn’t political but military. For the TPLF, arms embargo means less drones that they will have to deal with on the battlefield. Especially since drones have been instrumental in pushing TPLF out of Amhara and Afar. They know that
For the Western governments it means that, decisive edge on military technology would tilt the battlefield too far in favour of ENDF. Thereby trying to reach some ‘balance of power’ between the legitimate government and rebellious group for ‘political talks’.
But the real worry for the West is that they no longer have the monopoly on advanced military technology that can change the outcome of conflicts. This is something that it cannot afford if it is to keep its influence in not only Africa but globally.
Arms sales is something that the US and Europe use as a carrot for better geopolitical outcomes for any potential friend. Notably, the military welfare that the Egypt receives from the US, was based on its commitment to recognition of the Israeli State under Camp David Accords. But for enemies of the West, weapon sales becomes a stick to beat into submission by cutting the supply of critical defence equipment.
The threat of Western backed embargoes against Ethiopia goes back decades. When the first sparks of the Second Italian-Ethiopian war began to light in 1935 Ethiopia’s was up against the wall. The French and the British not wishing to go to war with fascist Italy started caving to Mussolini instead of uphold collective security guaranteed under the League of Nations. They signed the Hoare–Laval Pact which without consultation with Ethiopia gave away much of its land to Italy. Such an egregious breach of sovereignty was so dumbfounding that both men resigned in shame.
But before this the British and French accepted Italian aggression by imposing an arms embargo on both Ethiopia and Italy. Rightly, the Ethiopian leadership were both shocked and angered, that they would be punished for defending themselves against fascist aggression. With no domestic manufacturing of weapons and practically cut from world arms trade, Ethiopia was left to its own devices. Which was outdated artillery pieces and not even enough rifles to go around. No aircraft, no tanks no ships. It could not wage a conventional war even on home ground. It resorted to guerrilla tactics which had mixed results.
Fast forward to late December 2021. A month ago the thought of Ethiopian National Defences Forces (ENDF), Amhara and Afar regional forces with militias pushing TPLF back into Tigray would have been unthinkable for many. But that is what exactly happened. The TPLF leadership have labelled it ‘tactical withdrawal’ and ‘offer of peace’. Reality is that the expansive use of a fleet of foreign drones have weakened their supply lines in especially Amhara region. Drones offer ENDF the ability to monitor and strike enemy positions with a largely inexpensive yet accurate weapons system.
Drones have changed the picture and course of history from Libya, Nagorno Karabakh and now Ethiopia. Notably these drones weren’t sourced from the West. US and Europe have stringent rules on the sale of weapons, especially drones. Export licenses weren’t given to drone manufactures to sell their products overseas. While some argue it is for ‘human rights’ and or humanitarian reasons, it is not. The real reason is it did not and does not even today share its military technology for what it deems ‘sensitive’ systems. Therefore, Ethiopia looked to Turkey, Iran and allegedly the UAE for supply of drones. This e, that a once former US ally has turned their heads to the East.
It is not a coincidence that two of the 3 mentioned countries have built their own military manufacturing in response to arms embargoes and sanctions. Obviously, the Islamic Republic had no other options as it was internationally isolated due to the hardline Revolution of 1979.
Iran, heavily sanctioned for many years after the revolution began a long and arduous process of building its industrial base to in lieu of western manufacturing. Even raw materials had to be sought ‘illegally’ to power its growth. Say what you want about the Iranian regime, it has done well to ‘sanction proof’ its economy and thereby its help fund its military manufacturing. It’s years of constant engineering has helped it indigenously design and manufacture its own defence equipment. From decently advanced drones, APCs, ships and most controversially ballistic missiles.
Now Iran has the ability to independently project military strength both internally and externally. What it offered Iran was a military deterrent to its many enemies and with that political independence. While it has done less than peaceful things with this independence, it has held its weight against even Israel and the US.
For the Turks the goal of independent military manufacturing when it was embargoed by its own Nato allies after invasion of North Cyprus. While the project struggled at times, it has grown exponentially in the last 5–10 years. Embargoed and with certain military deals with allies being cancelled, Turkey realised strategic autonomy is only realised when it is militarily independent. It now locally manufactures quality advanced military technology for both Turkish armed forces and the international market.
The effectiveness of embargoes is severely diminished if not obsolete if embargoed countries manufacture its own military technology without the behest of the West. This is a frightening thought from those who want to monopolise the power to affect the outcome of conflicts through military advancements.
This is in part why US ambassador to UN called on military sales to ‘warring parties’ to stop. Whose questionable messaging the about US intentions in Ethiopia and Turkey was noted by one expert.
Had Ethiopia possessed sophisticated drones, communication equipment and other military assets, it would have greatly blunted the violent insurrection of TPLF. The war that has cost Ethiopia and all its people immense pain and destruction could have been limited if not avoided. A militarily self-reliant Ethiopia and Africa, would significantly increase security by creating a deterrent against armed insurgent groups.
It is obvious that there are parties both within Ethiopia and externally who are unhappy at the seemingly growing military might of ENDF. An Africa that is no longer dependent on Western ‘security partnership’, is an Africa that the West cannot coerce. While there has be growing pressure to limit arms sales to Ethiopia its very unlikely to lead to any concrete multilateral restrictions. Knowing this the US and Europe has furthered pressured suppliers especially Turkey and UAE.
The rhetoric of political and military leaders of ‘we’re building a modern army’ will remain only rhetoric unless it makes military independence a priority.
The relevant institutions including civil ones needs to immediately invest in R&D, manufacturing capability, human resources and steady supply of raw materials. The private sector must also play a much bigger role in military development. There must be a holistic and determined approach to wean Ethiopia off foreign arms. It needs to work with partners and allies to help lift the burden of costly military acquisitions through technology transfer. Ethiopia should follow Nigeria in signing a military industry deal with Turkey to better develop local manufacturing capabilities.
There cannot be political independence, if key military deterrents can be cancelled on the whim of superpowers. If Ethiopia is to realise its dream of independence it must create its own defence industry and manufacture its own defence equipment. This should have been a lesson learned in 1935. Unless Ethiopia can source the latest military technology locally its security needs will never be fully realised.
